NFL prop model
Predicted volume for quarterbacks, receivers and running backs, against the lines on offer. Built from public nflverse data.
What every leg has to clear
A multi-pick entry pays only if all of it lands, so the bar is per leg. A single bet at a sportsbook needs 52.4%.
This week
Nothing priced yet this week.
Read this before believing any of it
These are model predictions, not advice, and the model has not been shown to beat a sportsbook. Measured against unseen seasons it is a little better than guessing a player's recent average and no more. Its typical miss is around 7.6 pass attempts, 2.4 targets and 5 carries, against lines that sit near 33, 5 and 12.
It also cannot see an injury, a depth-chart change or a snap count. In the week this was first published it had a running back at 6.3 carries whose line was 13.5, because it had not noticed he had become the lead back. Where the model disagrees loudly with a line, the model is usually the one that is wrong.
Nothing here is a recommendation to bet. If you do, risk only what you can lose.